Modelling cancer incidences and mortality in the Austrian population using dynamic microsimulation

Population projections indicate that by 2045, the Austrian population aged 65 and older will increase by approximately 47% compared to 2023. Since the likelihood of a cancer diagnosis increases with age, a corresponding rise in cancer cases is expected. To address this and support evidence-based decision-making, a model has been developed on behalf of the Ministry of Health to project cancer incidence, prevalence, and mortality within the population up to the year 2045. Our cancer projection model builds on the microsimulation model used by Statistics Austria for official population projections (Pohl et al, 2025). It introduces a new module for calculating cancer diagnoses and refines existing ones, such as the module for calculating mortality. A key advantage of microsimulation is its ability to account for individual characteristics, allowing factors such as existing diagnoses to influence future disease states and determine cause specific mortality outcomes. In addition, microsimulation offers the possibility of further developing the model in the future, e.g. through extensions such as the consideration of risk factors, as is already done in well-known microsimulation models such as OncoSim. (Ruan et al., 2023). The model parameters are calculated using administrative register data, including the Central Population Register and Cause of Death Statistics, linked with the National Cancer Register – enabling detailed tracking of individual life histories.

References Pohl, P., Slepecki, P., & Spielauer, M. (2025). STATSIM: Statistics Austrias dynamic microsimulation model for official population projections. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 18747655241308058. Ruan, Y., Poirier, A., Yong, J., Garner, R., Sun, Z., Than, J., Brenner, D. R. (2023) “Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality in Canada: The OncoSim All Cancers Model”, Preventive Medicine, Vol. 168.