Simu-survey experiments: A novel use of microsimulation modelling in the context of survey experiments to study public attitudes and intentions

We introduce the use of microsimulation modelling in the context of survey experiments, coined “simu-survey experiments.” They are a specific type of information experiment (i.e. a research approach for studying how specific pieces of information affect attitudes or intentions) in which the informational treatments are based on empirically grounded microsimulation estimates.

We argue that simu-survey experiments are particularly well suited to research contexts that involve some form of change, either a prospective policy reform (e.g. pension reform) or a life course event (e.g. taking up work). In both cases, the core principle is the same: respondents are asked in a survey to evaluate a situation that departs from the status quo, and the experiment identifies how their expressed attitudes or behavioural intentions shift when they are provided with microsimulation based information about the likely consequences of that change. Depending on the research question, this information can be situated at the household level, providing respondents with personalized estimates tailored to their socio demographic profile (e.g. the predicted change in disposable income), and/or at the societal level, offering general information that applies uniformly to all respondents (e.g. the expected change in poverty).

Simu-survey experiments therefore rest on a dual promise of causal inference and empirical realism. Respondents are not reacting to fabricated, unrealistic or vague information, but to concrete numbers that could actually apply to them or to their society, meaning that their responses will more closely approximate to how people think and behave in the real world. As such, simu-survey experiments represent a versatile methodological innovation for studying how individuals evaluate certain hypothetical changes in either policy context or personal circumstances (and their consequences) across a wide range of policy domains. They also allow researchers to more accurately assess how informed individuals form opinions, revise their beliefs or update their behavioural intentions.

To illustrate how simu-survey experiments can be applied in practice and to demonstrate their effectiveness, we present the second wave of the Basic Income in Belgium (BABEL) survey, our own simu-survey experiment aimed at uncovering how support for a universal basic income (UBI) is causally impacted by microsimulation-based information regarding its specific household-level and societal-level policy outcomes.