Agroecological Transitions under Mediterranean Water Scarcity: A Microsimulation of Carbon, Water, and Economic Performance

Mediterranean agricultural systems face increasing pressure from water scarcity, climate variability, and environmental degradation, calling for transition pathways that reconcile environmental sustainability with economic viability. Agroecological practices are increasingly proposed as systemic alternatives, yet their impacts remain insufficiently quantified at the micro level. This paper develops a microsimulation framework to assess the environmental and economic performance of agroecological transitions in water-scarce Mediterranean contexts, using a case study from Tunisia.

The model relies on micro-level farm data to simulate alternative production systems, comparing a conventional irrigated orange-tree monoculture with a diversified agroecological intercropping system combining olive trees and aloe vera. It integrates biophysical indicators—carbon balance and water use—with economic variables including production costs, yields, and farm income, enabling scenario-based analysis under different adoption and policy assumptions.

Results show that microsimulation captures heterogeneity, trade-offs, and non-linear effects that are overlooked by aggregate approaches. The findings identify conditions under which olive–aloe vera intercropping systems can improve water efficiency and carbon performance relative to orange monoculture, while maintaining or enhancing economic resilience, as well as constraints related to transition costs and scale effects. Methodologically, the paper extends the application of microsimulation to agroecological and climate-related questions. Substantively, it provides quantitative evidence to support climate-smart agricultural strategies and investment decisions in Mediterranean regions facing increasing water scarcity.