On July 1st, we will organize a pre-conference workshop on the topic of synthetic data for microsimulation.

Practical details:

• Fee: This pre-conference workshop comes with a €35 additionnal participation fee, which covers a lunch and 2 coffee breaks.
• Registration for the pre-conference workshop is mandatory, and can be selected in the registration process.
• Room: Welcome and workshop in room P02, coffee and lunch in room P12

Program:

More information on these presentations on the target="_blank"

Abstracts page…

Opening of the 2026 IMA World Congress

• Philippe Liégeois
• Isabelle Hachez
• Tom Truyts

“Living with High Inflation: The Distributional Impact of the Cost of Living Crisis in Türkiye” - Professor Cathal O’Donoghue

Abstract: Türkiye experienced the highest inflation experience in the OECD during the cost of living crisis during the cost of living crisis in the early mid-2020s. While the European Union inflation rate was 9.2% in 2022, declining to 6.4% in 2023 and 2.6% for 2025 - Eurostat, year on year inflation peaked at 85% in Türkiye in October 2022 and with annual inflation remaining above 65% at the end of 2023 before dipping to about 45% at the end of 2024 - Turkstat. Such large price changes impact the income distribution in many ways. In this presentation, we describe a portfolio of research that has employed microsimulation based decomposition methods to disentangle the impact of large macro-economic changes on inequality. The research begins by describing the historical macro-economic volatility that Türkiye. Using the new ARIA microsimulation model we undertake a variety of different analyses focusing on different dimensions. We begin by examining the distribution of price changes before the crisis and after the peak crisis in 2022. We then explore the policy response in terms of the poverty effectiveness efficiency and the poverty gap efficiency social transfers, which as an archetypal Southern European Welfare state mainly focuses on pension age work replacement benefits. With a progressive income tax system, we explore the nature of the fiscal drag within the system during this period. We contrast it with impact of price change on the regressive indirect tax system. With data from before the crisis and peak-crisis, we are employ a unique decomposition of the consumption and savings response during the crisis, emphasising in particular the differential savings response and the importance of durables as a source of hedging inflation for high income households on the one hand and the prioritisation of necessities by low income households. Furthermore, we explore the inequality increasing nature of the labour market, where some sectors have been resilient to price inflation in terms of wage growth, combined with other sectors that have not. A key conclusion is the distributional impact of price change has a greater impact when behavioural responses are considered than the literature that focuses on pre-behavioural response. As a result the consumption patterns have a greater impact than income changes.

Cathal O’Donoghue: Cathal O’Donoghue has been from 2016, the Established Chair of Social and Public Policy, located in the Disciplines of Geography and Economics at the University of Galway. He has been the Chair of the National Museum of Ireland since 2024 From 2016-2021, he was the Dean of Arts and Social Sciences. Prior to this he was since 2005, Head of Teagasc’s - Irelands Agriculture and Food Development Authority - Rural Economy and Development Programme. He was a member of the Fund Council of CGIAR, a $1 billion a year International Agri-Food Research organisation from 2014-2016. In 2023, he published his Forestry Economic Strategy for Ireland From 2012-2014, he was CEO of the Irish Government’s Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas 2012-2014, Chairman of the Irish Sport Horse Strategy Committee 2013-2015, was President of the International Microsimulation Association 2011-2015 and was on the Executive of the UK Agricultural Economics Society. From 2021-2024 he was Chair of the Foundation Board of the RDS. He was also a member of the Board of the National Museum of Ireland, a member of the Board of Music for Galway and Chair of the Galway Music Centre. Since 2022, he has been Vice Chair of the Royal Irish Academy Social Science Committee. He is a UCC graduate, a Statistician and Economist by training, with post graduate degrees from Oxford, UCD, the LSE, and Warwick, having worked previously at the ESRI, UK Government Economics Service, the University of Cambridge and NUI Galway. His personal research programme involves the development and use of policy simulation models, for which he holds a Chair - extra ordinary (adjunct) - at the University of Maastricht, as well as an adjunct position in UCD. He has published over 200 research papers, 5 books and supervised over 50 PhD students to completion. He has been an advisor to many international organisations and was a long term advisor to the UK Government’s Department of Work and Pensions on policy modelling earlier in his career.

Parallel session 1

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Coffee break

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Parallel session 2

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Drinks - Social Mixer

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