Building a cross-border synthetic population for Luxembourg and neighbouring regions
Synthetic populations are essential for modeling complex systems that require individual-level data. However, they are typically limited to a single country. Creating a synthetic population across multiple countries is challenging because the data available from national statistical institutes are inconsistent: the variables available differ, and for shared variables, the categories may not align. Fortunately, Eurostat provides access to a large amount of aggregated socio-economic data that is consistent across EU countries. Although these data are less detailed than what can be obtained from national statistical institutes, they provide a solid basis for generating synthetic populations.
Read MoreDistributional Effects of Distance-Based Road Pricing: A Behavioral Microsimulation Study for the Brussels-Capital Region
At the intersection of transport economics and public finance, this research contributes to the empirical literature on transport pricing as a policy tool for addressing the externalities of vehicle use. In line with recent technological developments and ongoing policy debates, it provides an ex-ante evaluation of a distance-based road pricing scheme that varies by time (peak and off-peak), location (congested and non-congested zones), and vehicle characteristics. While such systems are widely recognized as efficient, as they better align driving costs with externalities, their implementation in passenger transport remains limited. This absence is largely driven by concerns about distributional effects, highlighting the need for robust empirical evidence on equity implications as a key input for policy feasibility.
Read MorePopulation Ageing Trajectories in the United Kingdom: A Microsimulation Approach
Population ageing in the United Kingdom is shaped by the interaction of multiple demographic processes, including longevity improvements, fertility dynamics, and migration flows. This paper presents ongoing work using SimPaths to study plausible population ageing paths in the UK from a life-course perspective. The analysis models individual-level demographic transitions, including age- and sex-specific mortality, fertility behaviour, and migration. Particular attention is given to immigration, distinguishing age at arrival, cohort replacement effects, and heterogeneity in demographic characteristics between migrant and native-born populations. The framework allows population ageing to emerge endogenously from cohort size, survival, and population composition. We outline a set of counterfactual scenarios that vary assumptions on longevity improvements, fertility patterns, and migration regimes. Planned simulations will compare resulting population age structures, cohort distributions, and old-age dependency measures across alternative demographic trajectories. By using microsimulation to decompose population ageing into its underlying demographic mechanisms, the analysis provides a structured basis for refining longer-term research on demographic change in the UK and for identifying which population dynamics are most influential for future ageing trajectories.
Read MoreUncertainty assessment in dynamic microsimulation: the case of MikroSim (Germany)
Spatial dynamic microsimulations probabilistically project geographically referenced units with individual characteristics over time. Like any stochastic projection method, their outcomes are inherently uncertain and sensitive to multiple factors. In discrete time dynamic microsimulations, for each simulated time step (often years), each unit passes through different modules addressing different life events (births, deaths, ageing, partnership, employment, …), evaluating if a status transition occurs for them via a Monte Carlo experiment. This inherently introduces uncertainty due to the methods stochastic nature. However, simulations may also be sensitive to other factors, such as the choice of model types and complexity, as well as the parameter estimations, among others.
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